As the expiration date of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches, concerns mount over its impact on African exporters, particularly in the agricultural and light manufacturing sectors. Unless renewed, AGOA’s cessation could significantly narrow market access to the United States, thwarting efforts for economic diversification across the continent.
Since its inception in May 2000, AGOA has been a vital lifeline for sub-Saharan Africa, providing preferential access to the US market for its exports. However, with the approaching expiry of the initiative, many fear a downturn in the diversification of African exports and industrial growth. In Lesotho, for instance, AGOA accounts for nearly a third of the nation’s total exports, primarily in the apparel industry, which supports over 30,000 workers, predominantly women.
Compounding these concerns, a climate of increased trade barriers is already affecting both African and non-African exporters seeking to access the US market. Since April 2025, the introduction of country- and sector-specific tariffs has increased the average tariff rate for AGOA countries from under 0.5% to 10%. This spike in duties directly impacts crucial exports, including agricultural and food products, machinery, and textiles, resulting in double-digit tariff increases.
The expiration of AGOA is expected to hit Africa’s light-manufacturing exports hardest, particularly within the apparel and agro-food sectors, which include products like fish and dried fruits. With the loss of AGOA’s preferential treatment, the 32 African countries that benefited from these arrangements until September 2025 are likely to face another wave of tariff increases. This will not only compound existing tariff burdens but could impose rates two to three times higher on agricultural goods and manufactured products than what is applied to fuels and minerals.
Interestingly, exporters of commodities like coal, oil, and other mined resources seem less affected by changes in US tariffs. Countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Nigeria, and Angola, which primarily rely on fuel and mineral exports, will experience minimal increases in tariffs, thanks to their low most-favored-nation (MFN) rates or exemptions from additional duties. In contrast, more diversified economies like South Africa, while somewhat insulated from AGOA’s expiration, have still encountered significant tariff hikes this year due to the introduction of specific tariffs.
As stakeholders prepare for the potential disruption caused by the termination of AGOA, the need for immediate dialogue and strategic planning has never been more urgent. The fate of African export diversification hangs in the balance, and the upcoming months will be critical in determining how countries across the continent navigate these challenges.